Macroeconomics
Abdorasoul Sadeghi; Hossein Marzban; Ali Hossein Samadi; Karim Azarbaiejani
Abstract
The unstable state of macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), investment, and inflation rate, as well as the disproportionate level of high volume of cash held by private individuals versus the low volume of liquidity in manufacturing firms, have always been a significant problem ...
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The unstable state of macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), investment, and inflation rate, as well as the disproportionate level of high volume of cash held by private individuals versus the low volume of liquidity in manufacturing firms, have always been a significant problem in Iran's economy. In this respect, the relationship among the stock market, bank deposits, and speculation in the foreign exchange market, and also, the central bank's role in directing liquidity between them to affect the macroeconomic indicators are important. The current study evaluates this subject for 1988–2018 using a system of simultaneous equations and the three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. The findings indicate that there has been a significant negative relationship among the stock market, bank deposits, and foreign exchange speculation. The stock market and bank deposits have had a significant positive effect on investment and GDP, and in contrast, foreign exchange speculation has shown a significant negative impact. Conversely, bank deposits have negatively impacted the consumer price index (CPI), whereas foreign exchange speculation has shown a substantial direct effect. Finally, despite the existence of a significant negative relationship between three financial markets in the Iranian economy confirmed by the obtained results, the central bank has forfeited a considerable portion of its potential effectiveness in directing liquidity between parallel financial markets to affect nominal and real economic indicators due to interest rate repression.
Ali Hossein Samadi; Ali Haghighat; Kazem Aminzadeh
Volume 8, Issue 27 , July 2006, , Pages 65-87
Abstract
In this paper, we analyze the long –run relationship between inflation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the Iranian economy during 1338-1380. For this purpose, we use Gregory –Hansen (1996) Cointegration test. Our Study proceeds at the following steps. 1. We set up a multivariate model ...
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In this paper, we analyze the long –run relationship between inflation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the Iranian economy during 1338-1380. For this purpose, we use Gregory –Hansen (1996) Cointegration test. Our Study proceeds at the following steps. 1. We set up a multivariate model for the analysis of the long-run relationship between inflation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) 2. We test the unit root properties of data, and the long-run relationship between variables in the presence of structural breaks. 3. We estimate endogenously the break point data. Our results from cointegration tests and dynamic ordinary least square estimator show that there is a negative relationship between inflation and productivity.
